Certain dynamics which are likely to become more apparent over the next week, with other, parallel processes, may have a bearing on the tenuous balance of power within the ANC.
These processes could lead to President Cyril Ramaphosa becoming politically stronger over the next few months.
Last week, the ANC’s caucus in the National Assembly said it had decided to vote to continue with Parliament’s investigation into the fitness for office of the Public Protector, advocate Busisiwe Mkhwebane.
Meanwhile, the ANC’s Treasurer-General, Paul Mashatile, has said the party’s guidelines on when and how people should step aside have been finalised, which appears to be in direct contradiction to earlier comments by the party’s Secretary-General, Ace Magashule.
At the same time, while it is not directly related in any way, dynamics around Western Cape Judge President John Hlophe may soon be coming to a climax, which could strengthen the judiciary through improving the way it’s perceived, which could benefit Ramaphosa.
The decision by the ANC’s caucus to continue with the probe into Mkhwebane is likely to lead to a decision by Parliament this week for the investigation to get formally under way. The DA has called for the probe and the EFF opposes it, which means the ANC has the balance of power on the decision.